The Hurt campaign and some of his supporters keep referencing his ability to win elections. They say that this ability to win elections make him a preferable candidate to go against Perriello. After looking at his election history I have to chuckle about his capacity to win.
First of all I would like to bring up the obvious fact that he was a Republican running for election in a conservative district in which his family had lived for decades. Who were these conservative southsiders going to vote for, a liberal democrat or a Republican whose family had deep roots in the community? Even without the family history any Republican would have won in this area even Dede Scozzafava.
Having stated the obvious let’s look at the competition that Hurt faced in the several races he ran as a delegate and senator.
—————-State Delegate 2001——————
Candidate—————–Spent—————-Votes———Percentage
Randy Collins (Dem.)——$2,206————-6,382———35%
Robert Hurt—————$54,519————11,853———65%
—————–State Delegate 2003——————-
Candidate——————–Spent——————Votes———–Percentage
Kimble Reynolds Jr. (Dem)—-$58,623———–5,441———-38.4%
Robert Hurt—————–$122,347———–8,744———61.6%
—————– State Delegate 2005——————
Candidate———————-Spent—————-Votes———Percentage
Unopposed
Robert Hurt—————– $68,978————-12,821———-99.1%
——————-State Senate 2007——————–
Candidate———————Spent—————-Votes———Percentage
Sherman David Witcher(Ind.—$806 —————– 9,488———–24.20%
Robert Hurt——————-$174,585————-29,735———-75.70%
In these races Hurt spent $420,429 compared to $61,635 spent by his opponents. A Republican candidate with deep family roots running in a conservative area who outspends his opponents by a multiple of seven should not be bragging about his ability to win elections. What really stands out is the senate election in which Hurt out spent his independent opponent by a multiple of 216 but still gave up almost 25% of the vote. What would have happened if the Democrats would have put up a candidate to oppose Hurt in this election? One thing that the senate election shows is that Robert Hurt has a limited area in which he can win. In the delegate race he did well in a smaller home district but when he went to the senate race in a larger district in which he may not have been as well known, comparatively speaking he did not do as well. He ran against an independent that spent virtually no money and still managed to receive almost a quarter of the vote. It looks to me the further Robert gets away from his home town the more trouble he has in garnering support. To say he can win against Perriello in the 5th district is somewhat delusional especially when, because of his tax and spend record, he will not have the active support of the grassroots.
31 Comments
Very interesting, BRG. Facts, figures and logic to support my intuition.
did you read today that Perriello has raised over $1 million dollars.
money is critical to this race.
Kelly votes are alot more critical and honestly how many of the Tea party crowd do you think will vote for Hurt ? I have heard you make the comment that you want to beat Perriello well I would rather see Perriello win than to send another Rino into office.
This message has been brought to you by Will White for Tom Perriello.
Not Neff you missed my point if Perriello stays in office atleast we know what we have with Hurt who knows what we will get and im not willing to get behind another Rino.I would rather see Perriello win so in two years we could send a true conservative to office.
You assume Perriello will just be an easy defeat in 2012, and I am telling you that you are ridiculous.
You’d rather have a liv like Perriello voting in congress for the next 2 years than someone like Hurt? Moronic.
If you are so concerned, if Hurt gets the nom, then in 2012, run a “true conservative” in a primary.
In the current political climate, across the country, people are looking alot more closely at who the candidates are, what they stand for, what record they have if any, and want fresh outside the beltway faces. This is going to be the year of the Jason Chafetz type elections. War chests will matter less than the candidate that works his butt off to win the support of those voting for them. Hurts war chest, and national committee endorsements or support will do nothing to help him win the support of the residents of the 5th district. It is proving to be a distraction for him. I think kelley is the only one I know of that will be voting for him. I’m sure there must be at least a few other robots out there also.
Unless Tommy buses in troops of ACORN and SEIU workers, he should start collecting moving boxes now.
Well said Sandy.
I believe your assessment of the results of Hurt’s state senate race is construed by your own inherent prejudice against Hurt. You say the Independent getting 24% of the vote reflects a weakness on the part of Hurt.
That conclusion has to be based on an assumption that the conservative vote in his senatorial district exceeds 76% ! Duh! Be advised that his senatorial district and the 5th Congressional district both include a large number of both liberal and independent voters, and that in many cases the areas covered in both districts are the same.
And, don’t forget Perriello carried the district with a HIGHER percentage than the BIG O did; to dispell a popular belief that Perriello rode in on O’s coat-tails. Believe it or not, there are indeeed a lot of LIBS in the 5th district and we need someone with name recognition, true conservative base and beliefs, and a proven history of winning in order to defeat Perriello’s name recognition, his tremendous advantage in fundraising, and the inherent advantage of being an incumbent!
Hurt is THE MAN !
Well said Robert
Sorry, Joe P, but you obviously have me confused with the best man in this race!
I think Hurt is better poised to win an election then any other candidates. You mention his deep family roots (plus, much better then just living in the district for 4 years and having an absent/erratic voting record.) He also has name recognition in 1/3rd of the district (plus), ability to raise money (plus), no tax pledge (plus), 10th amendment bill sponsorship (plus), very pro-life (plus), favorable rating from gun groups (plus), young (plus), connections and support of Gov. McDonnell (plus), good campaign staff that has proven that they can win (plus, Lacivita is a proven tactical mastermind, you may not like him but you cannot dispute what he can do for a campaign), terrible tax vote (minus minus minus).
Does anyone truly believe that the other candidates have the polish, fund raising, and support to go toe to toe with Perriello? (By support i mean not just that of the Tea Party, but of the Republicans, Independents and Democrats in the district)
Further, I am a tea party supporter of Hurt’s and i would expect that some tea partiers will support him (you cannot say that none of them will because you know that is lie). Also, how many people are in the tea parties in the district? This is a very old school district with counties like Franklin in which you have a lot of blue dogs. Remember Virgil was a dem before an R.
Just a couple of thoughts. I think this is by far the most interesting race in VA right now. Keep up the good work on this blog.
Aaron- Almost your entire comment is actually a case for why Hurt is not the most attractive candidate. With the onset of the Tea Party movement, the electorate is no longer interested in “cookie cutter” candidates. Your comment makes Robert Hurt just that.
With a more informed voting population, “name recognition” doesn’t have the sway it once may have. For example, Marco Rubio, Scott Brown and Doug Hoffman. It’s the message, not the name. Also, having name recognition in only 1/3 of the district is not something to brag about. Hurt has more name recognition now, as a candidate for Rep. of the 5th district, which has been almost all negative.
Having “connections” to McDonnell and the support of the national committees is in essence saying, I am not going to win this because of who I am, but, rather because of who I know. Pushing someone to the head of the line is widely seen as “cronyism.”
To consider his campaign manager, LaCivita, as a “tactical mastermind” is to say that Hurt needs all the help he can get, because he can’t stand up on his own as a strong candidate. I suspect that his biggest job will be in downplaying Hurt’s record of tax increases, rather than selling him as a good solid conservative. Can anyone doubt that LaCivita, as a part of Cuccinelli’s campaign team, had little to do. Cuccinelli sold himself without the need to try to make him look better.
To claim that Hurt is “polished” is a contrivance. From everything I have heard from Hurt, he is anything but a “polished” speaker. He uhhs and umms more often than Obama. If he had a grasp on his beliefs, the words would flow, rather than having to fill in empty space to formulate the right thing to say, rather than what’s in his heart and mind.
The last I heard, 40% see themselves as conservative. The Independents are breaking for Republican candidates, and, are running away from the Progressive policies of the current administration in Washington. Those conservatives are more concerned with less government, lower taxes, and fiscal sanity. Perhaps Hurt may have been an acceptable candidate during better economic times. His tax vote in particular is exactly what voters are rejecting. That vote will prove to be his downfall. If the national committees had gotten that message in 2006 and again in 2008 the Republican party would not be in such a sorry minority state. The voters are rejecting “more of the same”, and, Mr. Hurt is clearly “more of the same.”
Sandy,
Brown and Rubio had name recognition. Rubio was the speaker of the house in Florida and Brown was a state legislator so while they may not have had national name recognition that had it within their own states for sure!
Last time i checked McDonnell was not a national figure (yet) and his connections will surely help anyone running in this conservative district.
LaCivita did help the Cuccinelli campaign and if you dont think so then you are mistaken. Sure Cuccinelli had a great message but he also had to navigate a 3 way convention vote which is not an easy thing to do. Melendez-Diaz legislation? Subtle attack on Brownlee for being the “prosecutor?” Ring a bell?
Have you heard any of the other candidates speak? They make Hurt look polished in contrast.
Aaron, Sandy believes that whoever the “Tea Party movement” wants to vote for will win. Like they (we) are a monolith who will only vote for true pure conservatives who are not “more of the same”.
She (I assume Sandy, that you’re a woman) does not grasp that the candidates she mentions are quite different than what we have here. Those candidates (Brown, Rubio, Hoffman) are not our candidates here. Brown and Hoffman were made into national races (and you could argue that Rubio’s gone “national” too), but the winners of the elections fit the electorate in their races.
Brown is pretty darn liberal (and was a good fit in MA), and Hoffman lost in NY (or maybe she forgets that). Rubio plays well in FL, but there are circumstances that he can play into where our candidates don’t grasp (being a leader in the Cuban-American community, a leader in the state legislature, etc.). Tommy Perriello is a pushover, and our district is not a simple “Tea Party district”. There are a LOT of liberals/moderates who laugh at the idea of someone like Verga, Ferrin, or Morton trying to take on Perriello in our district.
Perriello will be a formidable foe in November (backed with huge DC money, as Kelley often points out), and it shouldn’t be taken for granted that whomever the Tea Party selects as their candidate will win handily.
I don’t support Hurt at this point, but to say he’s horrible/terrible/a bad candidate is f*cking moronic. If he gets the nom, we should all support him. Saying stupid things like “Yeah, let’s give Nancy Pelosi another vote for 2 years” is counter-productive. You can go ahead and support bigger government and Pelosi and I’ll support a less than ideal candidate who will vote for 98% of the policies that I support.
*Tommy Perriello ISN’T a pushover
Yogi Frickin’ Berra!
Can’t you make it 24 hours without saying “Scozzafava”?
Scozzafava! Scozzafava! Scozzafava!
Southside this is the only post of yours I deleted because of the word frickin and it really added nothing to the discussion but here it is again.
Stay classy.
did any of you see Charlie Hurt, Sen Hurt’s brother on FNC this a.m.? If you shut your eyes, he sounds identical to the Senator in cadence, tone & verbal expressions. He, too, has some “umm” & “ahh” in his speech pattern. All in all, I followed his message & was not distracted.
I saw the last 30 seconds or so, and, he sounded fine to me. I did not notice stumbles, etc in that short time. He does look like Robert, doesn’t he?
Aaron- If you are working for the Hurt campaign, or if you are just supporting him, you can do better than your last reply.
First of all, Rubio started his campaign something like 30 points behind Crist. No one knew who he was, even in his own state. Polls show voter opinion of those within the state, not national voices. A Republican friend, from Fla., just a couple of months ago, never heard of Rubio. Just as I doubt that anyone other than Hurt’s neighbors, or those living in close proximity to him, had never heard of him either. The voting population overwhelmingly does not know who their state senators, or house members are, sadly, that is a fact. Everyone knows who Palin is, or Romney or Huckabee, but, I promise Hurt was an unknown name to a majority of the 5th district residents.
I suspect the same is true of Scott Brown.
I never said that McDonnell was a national name. Please reread my comment, I referred to the “national committees” separately. Again, “connections” implies “cronyism”, and, someone being pushed to the front of the line. That should be the last thing Hurt would want to be seen as.
Finally, to say that Hurt makes the other candidates look unpolished, is nothing more than “spin.” It is downright incorrect. As I said above, if Hurt had deeply held conservative principles, it would ozze from his skin pores, and flow easily out of his mouth. The only way Hurt could improve on his delivery would be for LaCivita to load a teleprompter for him.
Aaron, the informed voting population have roundly rejected the old mantras of name recognition, big war chests and proven ability to win. To borrow an old phrase- What part of NO do you not understand?
Sandy, please help me to understand:
to battle Perriello, well-funded, smart & armed with everything an incumbent brings to the election, you want:
1:someone who speaks “from the heart” (see Rahm’s problems this week or even Obama’s LV comment) with no regard for how the comment will sound in opposition ads,
2: someone who has no connections to Republicans in Congress or our own Governor’s Mansion
3: someone who raises no money at all from anyone other than 5th district voters (but Perriello’s warchest is tremendous!),
4: someone who either can’t afford or isn’t smart enough to hire the best damn political consultant in Virginia & maybe in the country.
sandy, I want the Pelosi/Obama enabler, Tom Perriello, gone from elected office. We need to marshal every force, every dime & everybody together to make that happen.
kelley- To answer you point by point-
1. I wouldn’t bring up how the other candidates will sound in political ads, when Mr. Hurt has a problem with articulating anything clearly. In addition, when Perriello starts flooding the airwaves with ads pointing out his tax increase vote, over and over, it will make Hurt appear to be just a little to the right of Tommy’s far left. To think Perriello will not drive that message home is foolish.
2. Having “connections to anyone in Washington, or any other high level government position, is the exact opposite of what the voters throughout the country are screaming for. This is an anti-incumbent, anti-Washington insider year if there ever was one.
3. I am actually against any candidate from any district receiving donations from anyone other than the voters who will be choosing their candidate. If you remember the Perriello/Goode race, not only Goode, but, all the Republicans were having major hissy fits because of the money Perriello was getting from NY. I am not nieve enough to think that camdidates will refuse outside the area money. I do believe that the amount of money that someone gets is not enough to push them into the winners column. You, in particular, seem to be obsessed with the money angle more than the candidate. I am not a McPadden supporter, but, he isn’t collecting much money, but, he probably has more boots on the ground, willing to work hard for him, than any of the other candidates. Grassroots support beats out dollars any day.
4. Having the “best damn political consultant” doesn’t automatically mean success for the candidate. If Hurt doesn’t have what it takes, LaCivita won’t be able to convince anyone that he does.
Kelley, you have just grasped the entire situation here in the 5th and summed it up precisely! WE DO need to defeat the incumbent Perriello and we WILL need a lot of resources to do it, even with Hurt as the candidate.
Those that say another Perriello term is better than a pure TP-er are just plain crazy.
Aaron- There is something else I would like to add. If you look at those that have risen to the top, or are at the top in polls. They are all considered “likeable.” McDonnell, Cuccinelli, Brown and Rubio, to name a few, are all positive, self-confident, inspiring and they believe strongly in Americas greatness. They have the ability to connect with the voters on many levels. I have never met Mr. Hurt personally, and, I am sure he is a really nice guy, however, he seems to lack the ability to “inspire.” I understand that it is difficult to connect when you are working from a position of negatives, but, without the “likeability” factor, he has little chance of winning the nomination. He does not help himself in ducking out of meet and greet debate forums.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/voting-open.html
Get voting, people!
Sandy,
I dont work for Hurt’s campaign, but i am a supporter.
Kelley pretty much covered my thoughts regarding your stance in her post.
You should try to meet Hurt before you say he lacks the ability to inspire. Further, few have the likability of McDonnell that is why he dominated.
“the informed voting population have roundly rejected the old mantras of name recognition, big war chests and proven ability to win.” Not really true.
Rubio proved he could win by dominating state politics to a point where he became speaker of the House. Scott Brown was considered by Romney, who basically ran his campaign, because he proved he could win as a Republican in Mass.
The millions of dollars thrown into the Brown race as the polls closed is an example of big war chest politics. He may not have started out as a big war chest candidate,although using the former staff of a presidential candidate may be considered big war chest politics, but he ended up as one.
It may sound cool and hip to say that these things dont matter anymore in politics, but the truth remains that they do.
Not Neff- The Tea Party activists, and those that support them from afar, will indeed choose the 5th district candidate. If you remember, the whole movement began because of “taxes.” The economy, jobs, and taxes will drive the winner.
I have mentioned Rubio et al because of what attracts the voters to them, and how they have succeeded despite “no name recognition”, which seems to be an end all for Aaron. You make the residents of the 5th district sound as though they are living on another planet. Low taxes, less government and keeping the government out of my face is not a message designed for only one area of the country.
I have not forgotten that Doug Hoffman didn’t win. I am also well aware that the national committees supported a Liberal Republican. For a virtual unknown, who did little campaigning, up to only a few weeks before the election, his voter totals were an amazing statement from the country in support of conservative candidates.
It really is senseless to worry about what the Liberals/Progressives laugh at or say about any Republican candidates. They will not be voting for any Republican anyway. And, the Liberals don’t get to set our agenda, or choose our candidates.
And Neff, I am not small enough to call Hurt a horrible/terrible candidate, any more than I would say your ideas are effing moronic. I have respectfully laid out my ideas and opinions about him as a candidate. I do not see him having much of a chance of beating Perriello in the general. I have not supported any candidate in any post I have made. I have been working by process of elimination, and, for my own reasons, stated in my comments,I have eliminated Hurt and McPadden.
It would be just as easy, and valid for me to say that supporting Hurt insures another 2 years of the Progressive Washington machine, with Perriello representing everything the 5th district residents don’t want.
I may have missed it, but have you stated why you have eliminated McPadden?
Hey Bill?
Why are you deleting my postings?
BruceH