Since some of the other blogs in the 5th have been analyzing the GOP congressional I thought I would give it a shot. I am sure there will be a lot of disagreement but it should generate some very interesting give and take.
Ken Boyd the supervisor from Albemarle County has succeeded in raising close to $37,000 from just over 40 individual donors. His cash on hand at the end of December was about $20,000, not bad but not great. Ken does not seem to be trying to appeal to the grass roots and appears to be relying on the tried and true of sticking with the old school GOP.
Ron Ferrin, what can I say? He has no money and besides his appeal as a conservative there does not seem to be anything there. Ron appears to be a nice enough guy but with no fund raising activity I wonder why he is even being invited to the debates.
Robert Hurt is a serious contender for the fact that he has previous experience and has been able to raise a significant amount of money, $293,458. Hurt has been able to dip into the group of contributors from his state campaigns and is certainly a strong competitor for the primary. However because of his questionable voting record when it comes to taxes I think he will have a tougher time against Perriello than some of the others.
Jim McKelvey has been one of the very few to donate money to his campaign with $501,200 all but $1,200 coming from the candidate as a loan shows that he has virtually no support. Like most of the others in the field he claims to be a constitutional conservative but unlike the others he has not sworn off of running as an independent, this bothers me. I am not sure how to take a candidate that will ultimately put himself before the good of the district he hopes to represent.
Michael McPadden has a strong group of dedicated volunteers who are able to make Michael’s campaign appear stronger than it really is. I say this because if McPadden had the grass root support that he appears to have he would have been able to raise more then $3,228 in individual donations last quarter. Michael speaks well in public but his message does not seem to be generating enough interest to bring in the dollars that are needed.
Feda Kidd Morton has been around for quite a few years and has been very active in the GOP. Feda promotes much of the same ideals as the others but her fund raising has been anemic and her campaign is in a hole financially by about $12,000. She appears to have good support but it seems to be mainly in her home area of Fluvanna and the support she does have has not brought in the money that she will need to make her a contender.
Laurence Verga another businessman who was originally faulted for generously funding his own campaign has according to rumor had a very successful beginning of the year for fund raising which should significantly add to his campaign coffers. Verga has been the one candidate that has taken the lead in bringing to light the NRCC influence in the 5th district race thus generating a lot of press both positive and negative for him. Like the others Verga labels himself as a constitutional conservative who decided to become more involved after attending his first tea party event on July 4th.
Upon reviewing these candidates, in my opinion at the present there are only three viable individuals going into the June primary. I am basing this solely on the money because unfortunately that is what it is going to take. These three candidates are Boyd, Hurt and Verga. McKelvey has the money but from the fund raising aspect has no support and therefore I eliminate him from consideration. I know the Morton and McPadden supporters will dispute this but unless these two candidates can each come up with several hundred thousand dollars in the next 6 weeks I do not see their campaigns succeeding. If they are unable to do this they should seriously consider withdrawing.
42 Comments
Coakley outspent Brown 50 to 1 and he still won money isn’t everything.
I meant 5 to 1
You make some good observations, but I think you place too much importance on the fundraising too early in the race. Yes, money is essential to getting the message out, and it is an indication of support, but it is way too early for many people to commit. They are still studying the candidates. This is a grass roots campaign for the primary. It is the kind of race in which it will not require as much money as it will require passionate support. Voters in the primary will not be reached by big media advertising, but by door-to-door, person-to-person contact. Before one closes the door on any candidate, check out this commentary:
I agree with Clay, on every point, especially, “It is the kind of race in which it will not require as much money as it will require passionate support.”
In my mind, it looks like McPadden, Morton, Boyd, and Hurt are the top tier candidates.
A gifted communicator, Mike McPadden has the ability to rally support around our shared conservative values. McPadden was the only candidate at the first TEA party debate who was able to consistently go beyond the question.
As a leader and one committed to conservative victory, McPadden has repeatedly called for a TEA Party convention to put one candidate up against Robert Hurt in the primary. We should support this effort and unite behind one voice, or it will be Hurt vs. Perriello this fall.
One important thing to note is that the fund raising totals have only been updated through the 4th quarter of last year (when people were donating to McDonnell, et al., and spending on Christmas/end-of-the-year charities). To me, it is similar to a pop quiz; it’s a good attempt at finding out where people stand in relation to each other, but not overall effectiveness, as shown by a research paper/final exam.
The real first test will be the 1st quarter fundraising totals (since most campaigns seemed to have been waiting to ramp up their efforts until just recently).
Regarding the post: Ferrin’s the only one in my opinion that absolutely needs to get out at this point, and people should stop talking about him as a serious candidate. On life support: Morton, McKelvey. Critical condition: Verga. Broken arm, but stable: Boyd, McPadden. Just a bad haircut: Hurt.
It is encouraging to see a thoughtful analysis like this–totally opposite the nonsense spewing from the Bitter Boyer Boys.
But if it is true that Verga is awaiting a kidney transplant, shouldn’t that be a factor? It also would seem important that Senator Hurt really does have a solid record of attracting voters and financial support in a large swath of the 5th District. While his tax vote clearly is important to those of us active in the Tea Party movement, realistically it has not seemed to matter to 5th District voters. They even swung to the Dem column to favor Mark Warner in the Senate, and Warner is the Governor who gave us the tax hike.
My main point here is that I think this analysis might include Verga’s health and Hurt’s proven political abilities in the 5th.
Personally, I would not make Verga’s health an issue. I admire him for running, and for his beliefs. I think McPadden is proving to be a better candidate, and that would be the case, regardless of Verga’s health.
As to the logic regarding Hurt as an proven winner, I frankly do not get it. Obama is a proven winner, so we should support him? Coakley won her race for Attorney General by about 30 points? So, Scott Brown should have stayed home? Periello is a proven winner in the 5th district, not Robert Hurt. So, by your logic, we should support Periello? Who wants a Republican who is going to vote as a Democrat? Hurt abandoned his party at crunch time. Rather than cut government spending, he voted to stick it to his constituents. He has evaded responsibility for his votes, and has distorted his record on his website. I will support any nominee but Hurt. If we are going to have big government and big taxes, I would rather have Democrats bear responsibility.
if we are going to discuss a candidate’s health, we should try to get the facts.
Verga’s health issue may prevent him from continuing his campaign. Who will financially support a campaign that may not exist?
Laurence’s wife Elizabeth will be donating a kidney. The transplant will take place probably in the early spring. He will be laid up for about two weeks and then will be back at it. From my understanding the person donating the kidney has a longer recovery time then the person receiving it. I would ask that everyone keep this family in their prayers.
The author of the survey of the candidates acknowledged that Mike McPadden has something which none of the other candidates have: a strong group of dedicated volunteers. There is a reason for this: Mike has the most impressive credentials and the deepest understanding of the issues. He is as pro-gun and pro-life as anyone. And, he is a leader. Fund raising is, of course, an issue. But the fund raising figures you cited were, I gather, from the quater ending Dec. 31, well before anyone but politicos are even thinking about a primary in June. Once some of the candidates realize that it would be wise to step aside, people will begin to focus on the others. Keep in mind that there was a point in the presidential primaries in 2008 when John McCain was flat out of cash and was literally carrying his own baggage from airplanes. In time, things for him imnproved. So, steady as she goes: I like Mike.
Good points. And let’s remember that at one time experts said that Hillary was certain to be the next president. Last week, the experts voted that the Colts would be the Super Bowl winners.
That is great news. So fortunate that his wife is a compatible donor. Regardless of which candidate we favor, I know the Vergas will be in everyone’s prayers.
the 5th district encompasses 2 (or maybe even 3) local TV markets which doubles (or even triples) the TV ad expense.
GOTV efforts require money, too.
believe me, I hate the fact that money is the mother’s milk of politics. but it is a fact nevertheless.
I think most people are cautious about donating right now. You can believe as much as you want in a candidate… but a lot of people, myself included, do not have the disposable income I did 2 years ago, so my donations are not as large or often as I would like them to be. My husband and I have both taken pay cuts for 2010. But that does not diminish our support for a candidate. We just have to make sure we can pay the bills and put some away. In summary – yes fund raising is very important… but I have no doubt that will come. I hope Mike hangs in there. HE is the candidate that I this has the best shot of beating Perriello and defending our Liberty.
The money does not matter much until after the primary. It does not take radio or tv to reach the very small number of committed primary voters. The typical turnout is something like one to 3 percent of total eligible voters.
Up until the primary, this is all about grassroots support. Hurt has ignored the grass roots movement, both in his votes and in spurning the candidate forums.
Good point Clay.
clay, how do you define “grass roots”?
Fair question, Kelley. It is a vague and subjective term, but I would describe the grassroots in the 5th district, in the climate we have today, as very conservative and very angry at intrusive, abusive, Big Government. In my opinion, the grassroots in the 5th district is now dominated by the spirit of the Tea Parties. Nationwide polls have shown more people identify with the Tea Parties than with either Republicans or Democrats. I think the 5th district is more conservative than the national average. 2008 was an aberration for a number of reasons, and it only went for Periello by a few hundred votes. Just my opinion.
clay, the “grassroots” you describe encompasses more people than just self-proclaimed “tea partiers”. Most of us (& I am a “tea partier”) feel disenfranchised by Congress.
while the anti-government sentiment is high, I still don’t believe the majority of people want to lay claim to burning Pelosi in effigy.
newsflash about union support of teapartyisover.org (or something similar).
part of this report was on FNC. the other part is at Hotair.com
You lost me, Kelley. I did not say that the grass roots is limited to the Tea Parties, but as you admit, the grass roots, if not actually involved in the Tea Party, is very sympathetic to the movement, and whatever people think about the organization, or lack thereof, in the Tea Parties, they are the most active and organized element in the 5th district. Secondly, it seems that you limit “Tea Party” to those who want to burn Pelosi in effigy. There were a million and a half people in DC for 9.12. I was there. I did not see one effigy of Pelosi, or even Obama, burned. Now, there was a lot to see. I may have have missed a few things, but that is not much of a characterization of a movement. I was also in DC for Michele Bachmann’s protest in November and Code Red in December. I did not see any comparable demonstrations for any Democratic positions or for any middle of the road Republicans. I never saw any news reports of McCain getting turnout like that at his campaign rallies. Those many thousands of people have been turning out in Washington not for a campaign or candidate or an election, but for a belief in Constitutionally limited Federal government. That is the spirit and the activism that Senator Hurt cannot generate.
My suggestion to Hurt is that he stay right where he is. He is admired and respected by a great many voters in his area, and he is now on the right side of issues that are pending in the General Assembly. There is important work to be done there, such as protecting Virginia’s rights under the 10th Amendment. He should continue to do the work he has begun there. He is young. If he does well, and learns from his past mistakes, he might make a good governor some day.
Would you consider the unit chairs in the various counties to be grassroots supporters? What about the people those unit chairs work with?
Does anyone know if the unit chairs have endorsed anyone? If so who?
In a race that was lost by 727 votes (i think) the unit chairs will be an important force in getting the vote out, organizing events, and raising awareness.
Ronny Mayhew endorsed Hurt and he even sent out a fund raising letter called the chairman’s challenge.
Ideally, the unit chairs should reflect the grassroots, but in the 5th district, the unit chairs prefer to disrespect the grass roots. The unit chairs defied grass roots lobbying for a convention rather than a primary. The Tea Parties brought members to the district meeting in support of a convention. Six out of the seven candidates issued a joint press release requesting a convention. The unit chairs voted by secret ballot for a primary. This primary will be open to Democrats voting en masse, since they have no primary of their own. This primary could also select a nominee with less than 20% of the vote and over 80% opposition. I doubt the unit chairs will be much use to anyone.
The chairs allowed me to have a voice in the matter? Good on them!
You are being sarcastic, right?
If not, I would really like to know how you managed to sneak into their meeting behind closed doors. I wonder if they also allowed you a vote in their secret ballot? For all the voters know, you were the King Maker in the smoke filled room.
If it had been a convention, I would have had no say in who wins the nomination. Since it’s a primary, I do.
Clay this is not true of all unit chairs remember the vote was close.
Hi Will. I am not sure what is not true of all unit chairs. They all met behind closed doors and they all voted by secret ballot. We have no idea how they voted, and we really cannot say for certain if the vote was close. From the reported count I heard, it was not all that close. I thought it was something like 19 to 13, but since it was secret and there is no independent count, we really have no idea what the vote was, or what transpired. We do know that the outcome resulted in a big tab for the taxpayers, and it angered 6 out of the 7 candidates and the Tea Party supporters.
For some, it’s nothing more than having their name in the news. I suspect it isn’t name recognition as a candidate, but, rather name recognition to build up their own businesses, or to build up their own ego’s. The field must be whittled down for the good of the party.
I hope the whittling down begins soon, so that we can be more united and prepared for the actual race. From what I have heard at the candidate forums, I think all six have a pretty decent understanding of the proper, limited, role of the Federal government. I would like to see the ones that drop out pursue other positions of leadership. For instance, the 5th district needs good unit chairs. We need more good representatives in Richmond and at the county level. At least two candidates have sufficient personal wealth to have an influence on politics by actively supporting conservative think tanks and PACs. In fact, I believe that Verga and McKelvey could be more influential in that way than in Congress.
Clay check out the PPP poll.
Hi Will, do you have a link for it? I do not even know what it is. Thanks, Clay
Is it Public Policy Polling? If so, I was polled.
Clay
NOT NEFF Said: “If it had been a convention, I would have had no say in who wins the nomination. Since it’s a primary, I do.”
Not Neff,have you ever been to a convention? It seems you do not know how they work. You go to the convention, you vote. It is not that difficult. Now, if you are a Democrat, you statement is 100% correct. It would be difficult for you to be able to vote in a Republican convention, yet your vote in a Republican primary would count the same as mine. That certainly seems fair and logical. Personally, I would rather not have Democrats cancel out my vote. Secondly, I would rather not have a nominee who wins with 20% of the vote for and 80% against. It just seems an odd way to select a candidate to me.
Let’s compare that to how much your vote counts
You assume for some reason that I would have been able to just hop on over to a convention. Instead, I can take 5 minutes out of my schedule to go vote in a primary.
Not all of us have the luxury of being able to take a day to convention it up.
I found the PPP poll. The results are disappointing, but not completely surprising. The questioning favored Hurt among Republicans simply by the number of questions regarding Hurt. Most of the Republicans received only a single question, while Hurt was polled in several different scenarios.
Im going to upset everyone again we need to get behind Virgil Goode if we do Hurt will drop out giving Virgil the victory.
It does not upset me, Will, but I am not about to get behind someone who does not want to run, which is exactly what Goode has said. In times like these, we not only need someone who WANTS to run, we need someone who WANTS to fight. Let’s be honest now about Goode: he usually voted the right way, but he was not a leader, he was a follower. Right now, he is a fence sitter. Will, did you receive the email that I did two days ago from Ken Boyd? He announced a joint fund raiser with Goode. Is he going to give his support to Goode, or vice versa?
No i didn’t get that email. That would really shock me if that turns out to be true.
Clay also take a good look at the poll even with Hurt in the race Goode is still even with Perriello that says alot to me.